Will the violence in Iran turn into another Hungary 1956?
The news out of Iran today is both stunning and joyous.
Shouting “death to the dictator,” Iranian protesters took to the streets again yesterday and today. In response, the government crackdown has become more violent — there’s tear gas in the streets, helicopters monitoring the scenes in the streets, burned out cars, and up to nine deaths. Reports say that soldiers fired upon unarmed dissidents. As the picture above shows, these are not scattered incidents, but large, organized groups of Iranian citizens willing to sacrifice their lives for their cause.
During the past few months, I admit that I read the news of the on-going protests with some skepticism. My cynical side told me that the protests would not last, that the iron claw of tyranny would have its way in Iran. Today’s news stories have convinced me that the protests are not going away. This is a confrontation that will either end in a bloody civil war or the ultimate overthrow of the religious fanatics controlling Iran.
Here’s my question for all those who opposed the Bush policy of regime change in Iraq: If the Iranian protesters ask for our help, should we intervene? Or should we do as we did in Hungary in 1956 and let the forces of tyranny crush this revolution?
Here are some incredible photos and videos of the Iranian protests as published today by the Los Angeles Times.
21,200 miles later, Hillary comes home sfter African tour.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, right, walksa with Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf in Monrovia, Liberia Thursday, Aug. 13, 2009. Clinton offered strong support Thursday for embattled President Sirleaf. Liberia is the sixth leg of Clinton's seven-nation tour of Africa aimed at promoting democracy and development.(AP Photo/Abbas Dulleh)
Hillary Clinton has completed an arduous 21,200 mile, 11-day, seven-country tour of Africa. With the exception of an embarrassing over-reaction to a town hall question that was misinterpreted to be about her husband, Bill Clinton, by all measures her trip was an unqualified success.
In another international test, Hillary has demonstrated her intelligence, a sensitivity to international concerns, and a fierce determination to chance perceptions of the U.S. and its foreign policy.
Here’s a breakdown of her trip country-by-country from Christian Science Monitor contributor, Tracey D. Samuelson:
From massive oil-producing Nigeria to the tiny island-nation of Cape Verde, Secretary Clinton’s trip highlighted the many sides of the diverse continent. Her seven-country tour was as much about securing US interests in resource-heavy lands as it was about supporting African development. Following are summaries of her visit in each country:
Kenya
A primary goal of Clinton’s 11-day trip was to reiterate the message of transparent and corruption-free governance that President Obama urged during his trip to Ghana last month. This reiteration began at the first stop, Kenya.
Indeed, the birthplace of Mr. Obama’s father was not spared criticism for its shortcomings. “The absence of strong and democratic institutions has permitted ongoing corruption, impunity, politically motivated violence, human rights abuses, lack of respect for the rule of law,” Clinton said at a news conference after meeting with President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Discussions also included trade, agricultural development, and the instability of neighboring Somalia. In addition, Clinton met with Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, president of Somalia’s transitional government, to offer reassurance of US support.
South Africa
Clinton’s time in South Africa, a country often known as the continent’s economic powerhouse, focused on strengthening relations that had soured and stalled during the administrations of former Presidents George W. Bush and Thabo Mbeki.
“In both countries, there are two new administrations which are taking that relationship a level higher,” South African President Jacob Zuma said after meeting with Clinton.
Clinton also stressed that South Africa should be a leader for the continent and toured an HIV/AIDS clinic outside of Johannesburg that is partially funded by the United States.
Angola
Oil-rich Angola is strategically attractive to the US. Already, Angola supplies America with 7 percent of its oil imports. Angola’s worldwide oil revenues account for approximately 85 percent of its gross domestic product.
Here, Clinton pressed for strong democratic institutions and governmental transparency, pushing President Jose Eduardo dos Santos to hold the country’s first presidential elections since 1992. Mr. dos Santos agreed to elections “in a timely manner,” according to Clinton.
Clinton also stressed the need for Angola to redevelop its once-productive agricultural industry. And she signed an agreement that provides the country with $17 million to combat HIV/AIDS and prevent new infections. It was one of only two pledges for new aid announced on the trip.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo
Traveling to Goma, a conflict-ridden provincial capital, Clinton focused on the crimes against women that have become widespread in this country and in neighboring Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda.
Since war broke out 12 years ago, 200,000 women and girls have been raped in Congo, the United Nations estimates. In “very frank” discussions with President Joseph Kabila, Clinton said, she “made the point that these crimes, no matter who commits them, must be prosecuted and punished.”
To Prime Minister Adolphe Muzito, she added at a dinner in her honor, “There must be an end to widespread financial corruption and abuses of human rights and women’s rights.”
Clinton also spoke out against “conflict minerals” mined in the country and announced that the US will provide more than $17 million in new funding to prevent and respond to gender and sexual violence here.
Nigeria
“Nigeria is at a crossroads,” Clinton said at a town-hall-style meeting in the capital, Abuja. She stressed the need for Africa’s largest country – and one of its most corrupt – to implement democratic reforms.
Before an audience of civil activists in Abuja, she cited a recent World Bank report that said Nigeria has lost more than $300 billion to corruption and mismanagement over three decades. And, Clinton said, the “lack of transparency and accountability has eroded the legitimacy of the government and contributed to the rise of groups that embrace violence and reject the authority of the state.”
Clinton and her counterpart, Foreign Minister Ojo Maduekwe, announced a new binational commission that, among other things, will aim to improve the stability of the oil-rich Niger delta.
The US supports Nigeria’s inclusion in the Group of 20, Clinton also said, but the country first has to tackle its corruption problems, she added.
Liberia
At a luncheon to honor the continent’s only female president, Liberia’s Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, Clinton said, “I will admit it. It’s not diplomatic, but I happen to be a fan and a friend of your president.”
Thousands lined the streets to greet Clinton in the warmest reception of all her African sojourns.
Despite a seven-year civil war, Liberia has been politically and economically stable since about 2005.
But Clinton did not shy away from the work Liberia has yet to do.
“Liberian people still need jobs, electricity, housing, and education,” Clinton said before a joint session of the Liberian National Legislature. “Law enforcement is still inadequate, and after years of war and lawlessness, institutions have been left crippled.”
She also noted the need for budgetary oversight and increased governmental transparency.
But she also said, “In just three years, there are encouraging signs of progress.”
Cape Verde
That Clinton included Cape Verde, a palm-speckled archipelago and refueling stop for long-distance flights, was a surprise to many.
But it was one last opportunity for her to highlight an example of good governance in Africa, after strong critiques of corruption in many of her previous stops.
“Few places … demonstrate the promise of Africa better than Cape Verde,” Clinton said in a news conference before returning to Washington.
Hillary pledges U.S. support for South Africa’s economic growth.
In a speech yesterday at an International Business Corporation event in Johannesburg, South Africa, Hillary Clinton lauded the economic gains made in South Africa in particular and in the African continent as a whole.
Saying that the U.S. could learn a great deal from South Africa’s “example,” she added:
South Africa, as a member of the G-20 and one of the most important emerging economies of the world, is uniquely positioned to advance its own economic trajectory and to propel economic growth on the African continent as a whole. Looking at the world map today, it isn’t easy to find countries with financial and economic policies that have been as sound as South Africa’s. And I know how difficult that is. But I also recognize that these policies have translated into good credit and low levels of debt, banks that are solvent and well-regulated and largely free of the type of bad loans that led to the bank failures in my country and others that helped to fuel this economic crisis that swept across the globe. Frankly, we could learn a lot from your example.
Hillary also reminded her audience of the importance of spreading democracy and economic equality to African states that are still embroiled in civil unrest:
It is a simple fact that investors are not attracted to states with failed or weak leadership, crime and civil unrest or corruption that taints every transaction and decision. In the political decisions that were made in this country after apartheid, you can see an engaged citizenry that turned out in such huge percentages for the presidential election and the constitution. And therefore, South Africa has both the stature and the experience to bring to the dilemmas facing a lot of other countries.
She reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to engaging South Africa economically and gave her support to a U.S. – South Africa Business Council:
. . . economic ties between the United States and South Africa have a lot of room to grow. One of the promising ideas is a U.S.-South Africa Business Council, or as you might prefer, South Africa-U.S. Business Council. (Laughter.) And we intend to follow up on that. When a delegation comes to the Corporate Council for Africa meeting in Washington next month, we will begin with discussions that will lead, we hope, to the establishment of such a council.
You can read the complete text of Hillary’s comments here.
Is Hillary dumping Delhi for Beijing?
With Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about to embark on a seven-day trip to India and Thailand, there is some speculation that the Delhi visit is only for show, a trip “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing,” as one blogger described it.
According to a State Department press release, Hillary “will meet with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and with External Affairs Minister Krishna. The Secretary and Minister Krishna will discuss the structure and elements of an enhanced U.S.-India strategic partnership that will enable us to advance solutions to the defining challenges of our time and to enhance global prosperity and stability in the 21st century. ”
While that sounds impressive enough, not everyone is convinced that the U.S – India “strategic partnership” is more than a U.S. ploy to get non-aligned India to purchase near-obsolete American fighters.
The US-Bharti (India) relationship is on the decline and Delhi knows this. Delhi has been sacrificed on the alter of the Sino-American relationship. Even so both countries will be putting a good face on the short lived friendship. There will be a lot of smiles, and a plenty of photo-ops. There will be huge references to the Nuclear deal and a lot of talking about the sale of stripped down versions of discarded US planes–in essence a lot of fluff and no substance.
According to the Rupee News, evidence that U.S. – India relations are on the decline includes:
1) The US “dumped” India at the G-8 summit by imposing severe restriction on the export of nuclear material to countries that have not signed the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty.
2) Hillary’s first trip was to China and did not include a visit to India.
3) The U.S. no longer sees India as a counterweight to China. Many believe that Hillary is the architect of a much closer relationship with Beijing.
4) Although India is still upset about the attack at Mumbai, “the rest of the world has taken a big yawn on the subject.”
5) The US has tripled its aid package to Pakistan, India’s rival in the region.
All this conjecture about “dumping Delhi,” of course, must be seen in the context of Hillary’s long-standing pro-India sentiments. Calling India “Hillary Clinton’s Darling,” think-tank director and blogger Dr. A. Prabaharan believes that no one is better suited to take U.S. – India relations to “the next level.”
In the last 62 years of India-US relations, no US secretary of state had credentials anywhere comparable to Hillary Clinton’s in the matter of promoting the bilateral partnership. As senator, she co-founded and co-chaired the India caucus. She has visited India more than once. She has a constituency among Indian-Americans, most of whom supported, electorally and financially, her candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination.
According to Dr. Prabaharan, Hillary’s visit will “help build stage III of the relationship, with India as a key partner helping America shape the 21st century. The earlier two stages were, according to her, the Cold War years and the post-Cold War period up to the end of the Bush administration and the India-US nuclear deal. She proposes to build ties on four natural platforms: global security, human development, economic activity and science and technology.”
In a few days we will have a better sense of who is right in this argument: the “dumping Delhi” faction or the “Hillary’s Darling” group.
Stay tuned.
